Pessimistic or realistic?tggzzz wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2026 6:12 pm Well, well, well. For a while now I have been presuming "the lights will go out", due to any/all of
...........
People claim I'm too pessimistic; I hope they are right. But I've been to IET talks by the engineers responsible for energy supply, and they confidently state the lights will go out. Interesting questions centre on when and why!
We came within a gnat's whisker of having widespread blackouts last winter, which was fairly mild. A 62/63 winter (not off the cards) would certainly have caused severe problems, misery and deaths.
Energy supply is long term but has recently been decided by here today, gone tomorrow, politicians (who seem to do nicely for themselves, and so are insulated from the consequences) and are mainly concerned with virtue signalling. I have the impression that most of them don't have a grasp of maths or physics to the standard of a bare 'O' Level pass, which with a measure of common sense, is all that's needed to get the big picture, and know what's practical and what's obviously hopeless.
I don't believe this forum should be sullied by political discussions which quickly become rancorous. I don't mean politics in the sense of Con/Lab/Green/Reform/Republican/Democrat etc, but in the broader sense of an argument about the way power and wealth is gained and distributed. In that way I believe we are being palmed off with a political and economic settlement we wouldn't agree to as an honest proposition, but is being imposed under a false prospectus by people who are ideologues, or just don't have much of a clue.
The 47 and 63 winters were extreme, but are extremes more likely with climate change? There's a reasonable change this year will see a strong El Nino, and let's not think about reductions in the AMOC 
